SOS Sahel UK is working with pastoralist institutions in Kenya and Niger to determine whether scenario analysis might be a useful tool to help pastoralists manage the growing complexity and unpredictability of their environment and communicate to policy-makers a vision of the future they want to see. The scale of the threats facing pastoral communities, and the largely untapped potential they offer their countries’ economies, suggest the need for more effective ways in which pastoralists can participate in national planning processes on their own terms.

Activities

Our pilot project in 2007-08 proved very successful and we have now scaled up this approach to reach a wider group of pastoral societies in Kenya in - Wajir, Kajiado, Marsabit and Isiolo. We are pleased to have the full support of the Government of Kenya, which sees scenario planning as a vital way to equip pastoralists to engage with an increasingly devolved government.

In 2009, we are:

• Scaling up the use of scenario analysis as a tool for community development directly with traditional pastoral institutions.
• Supporting each community in planning how they might take their ideas further, either through their own actions or by influencing others.
• Building on the heightened level of Kenyan government interest in the scenario methodology as a way of ensuring pastoralist voices are heard in policy discussions about the Kenyan drylands.
• Further refining the scenarios approach as a methodology that others can replicate.

Update

We have recently published a short booklet entitled "Planning with Uncertainty: Using Scenario Planning with African Pastoralists", which illustrates the approach that we have trialled with Boran and Somali pastoralists in Kenya and the WoDaaBe of Niger.  Click here to download a copy in English.  Click here for a French version.

• Traditional pastoralist institutions in Wajir, Kajiado, Marsabit and Isiolo in Kenya, and the WoDaaBe in Niger.
• Arid Lands Development Focus (ALDEF) - local Kenyan NGO